Friday, August 25, 2006

How Allegra picks her teams

I have kept the same strategy since the beginning of the race pools way back in season 5. The only time I've actually placed in the top three was season eight, but this could be due to the fact that I don't make myself eligible for as many bonus points as y'all. Anyways, here's how the stat obsessed pool host does things.

If you work off the theory that what it takes to win the race is a combination of experience and athleticism, it seems that the best determining factor would be age. So, therefore, I look at how each age has placed in all past seasons, and come up with the median placement for each age, combine that with their team mate, and figure out the median of the combined team. These are then ranked in order from best average to worst, and that's how I get my placements.

With me so far? Here's how each team fared this time around:

Bilal age 37 (past 37 year olds have placed 6, 4, and 3 = 4.33)
Sa'eed age 39 (7, 4, 10, 10 = 7.75)
6.04

David age 32 (11, 11, 11, 6, 3, 10, 6, 4, 4, 7 = 7.30)
Mary age 31 (8, 8, 10, 11, 7, 7, 8, 4, 2 = 7.22)
7.26

Duke age 52 (5, 5 = 5.00)
Lauren age 26 (1, 2, 8, 4, 9, 10, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10, 10, 2, 9, 5, 5, 7 = 6.12)
5.56

Dustin age 26 (6.12)
Kandice age 24 (9, 1, 5, 6, 7, 2, 5, 1 = 4.50)
5.31

Erwin age 32 (7.30)
Godwin age 29 (2, 3, 2, 5, 7, 1, 6 = 3.71)
5.50

Kellie age 22 (8, 8, 9, 1, 2, 5, 11 = 6.29)
Jamie age 22 (6.29)
6.29

Lyn age 32 (7.30)
Karlyn age 32 (7.30)
7.30

Peter age 35 (12, 3, 4 = 6.33)
Sarah age 31 (7.22)
6.78

Rob age 31 (7.22)
Kimberly age 28 (3, 11, 2, 5, 1, 5, 8, 5, 11, 11, 2, 10 = 6.17)
6.70

Tom age 39 (7.75)
Terry age 45 (4, 7 = 5.50)
6.63

Tyler age 29 (3.71)
James age 27 (3, 3, 2, 6, 7, 3, 6, 6, 11, 7, 7, 8, 8, 1, 10, 7, = 5.94)
4.83

Vipul age 29 (3.71)
Arti age 27 (5.94)
4.83

A point of interest: this is the first time that two teams have had the same average, and they also happen to be the lowest average which, if my method works this year, we are in for a fun finnish. After crunching these averages and assuming that age is a fair predictor of race placement, the order might look something like this:

  1. Tyler and James
  2. Vipul and Arti
  3. Dustin and Kandice
  4. Erwin and Godwin
  5. Duke and Lauren
  6. Bilal and Sa'eed
  7. Kellie and Jamie
  8. Tom and Terry
  9. Rob and Kimberly
  10. Peter and Sarah
  11. David and Mary
  12. Lyn and Karlyn
Of course, I reserve the right that this is completley false and whatnot . In fact, someone had already taken my top four teams when I went to figure this all out, so I'm playing with my 1, 2, 3, and 5 teams.

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